Research Article|Articles in Press

A preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing resection for single hepatocellular carcinoma

Published:March 16, 2023DOI:


      Background and aim

      The updated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines recommend liver resection (LR) for patients with single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of any size. This study developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing LR for single HCC.

      Materials and methods

      We identified 773 patients undergoing LR for single HCC between 2011 and 2017 from the cancer registry database of our institution. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to construct a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence, i.e., recurrence within 2 years of LR.


      Early recurrence was identified in 219 patients (28.3%). The final model of early recurrence included four predictive factors—alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥20 ng/mL, tumor size of >30 mm, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of >8, and cirrhosis. Preoperative application of this model provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, with 2-year RFS of 79.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75.7–84.2%); intermediate risk, with 2-year RFS of 66.6% (95% CI: 61.1–72.6%); and high risk, with 2-year RFS of 51.1% (95% CI: 43.0–60.8%).


      We developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence after LR for single HCC. This model provides useful information for clinical decision-making.


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