Background and aim
The updated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines recommend liver resection (LR) for patients with single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of any size. This study developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing LR for single HCC.
Materials and methods
We identified 773 patients undergoing LR for single HCC between 2011 and 2017 from the cancer registry database of our institution. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to construct a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence, i.e., recurrence within 2 years of LR.
Early recurrence was identified in 219 patients (28.3%). The final model of early recurrence included four predictive factors—alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥20 ng/mL, tumor size of >30 mm, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of >8, and cirrhosis. Preoperative application of this model provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, with 2-year RFS of 79.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75.7–84.2%); intermediate risk, with 2-year RFS of 66.6% (95% CI: 61.1–72.6%); and high risk, with 2-year RFS of 51.1% (95% CI: 43.0–60.8%).
We developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence after LR for single HCC. This model provides useful information for clinical decision-making.
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Published online: March 16, 2023
Accepted: March 11, 2023
Received in revised form: March 4, 2023
Received: January 16, 2023
Publication stageIn Press Journal Pre-Proof
© 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd.