Abstract
Background and aim
The updated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines recommend liver resection (LR)
for patients with single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of any size. This study developed
a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing LR for
single HCC.
Materials and methods
We identified 773 patients undergoing LR for single HCC between 2011 and 2017 from
the cancer registry database of our institution. Multivariate Cox regression analyses
were performed to construct a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence,
i.e., recurrence within 2 years of LR.
Results
Early recurrence was identified in 219 patients (28.3%). The final model of early
recurrence included four predictive factors—alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥20 ng/mL,
tumor size of >30 mm, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of >8, and cirrhosis.
Preoperative application of this model provided three risk strata for recurrence-free
survival (RFS): low risk, with 2-year RFS of 79.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]:
75.7–84.2%); intermediate risk, with 2-year RFS of 66.6% (95% CI: 61.1–72.6%); and
high risk, with 2-year RFS of 51.1% (95% CI: 43.0–60.8%).
Conclusion
We developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence after LR for single
HCC. This model provides useful information for clinical decision-making.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: March 16, 2023
Accepted:
March 11,
2023
Received in revised form:
March 4,
2023
Received:
January 16,
2023
Publication stage
In Press Journal Pre-ProofIdentification
Copyright
© 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
